There’s been a lot of buzz going on in the blogosphere and over Twitter about the future of HTML5 recently. For those who don’t know, HTML5 is the “next” standard for HTML. The reason you need to care about HTML5 is because HTML5’s success (or failure) is going to have a dramatic impact on the future of web video and video commerce in particular.
HTML5 video is unique because it is delivered directly through the web browser, without a plugin. Because HTML5 support will be included natively in web browsers, it may become a formidable competitor to Adobe’s Flash technology, which requires users to download a plugin to use and powers the vast majority of web video today. Of course, Adobe argues that HTML5 will throw web video “back into the dark ages” while HTML5 supporters claim HTML5 is the “wave of the future.”
Who’s right? Is HTML5 really going to be big? Will HTML5 kill Flash?
My answer to these questions are “Probably, but not in the near-term” and “Maybe, but it’s going to take a long time if it ever happens.”
Why do I think HTML5 will be big?
- There’s a lot of momentum behind HTML5 and powerful, entrenched interests are pushing for HTML5 - hard (Google and Apple, to name two of the big ones). Want video on your iPhone? Apple says “No thank you” to Flash - “We’ll take HTML5.”
- Ever dream of delivering full video in your emails? Flash represents a security risk, but HTML5 is supported in many web mail clients (at least when run in new browsers)
- HTML5 is already supported in Chrome 3 and up, Firefox 3.6, Safari 3 and 4, and iPhone (plus some secondary devices/browsers)
- HTML5 embeds are easy for end users. Toss in a <video> tag and you can call a video, not in a completely dissimilar manner to how we use <img> tags in today’s HTML.
- HTML5 is open. The technology community (especially developers) tend to get excited about open technologies and standards
- MPEG-LA just tore down one of the biggest stumbling blocks facing h.264 (the standard video codec used with HTML5 videos in some web browsers) for another 5 years. Additionally, videos that are not licensed for revenue (e.g. feature films, TV shows) are exempt from paying licensing fees (e.g. product videos used in video commerce programs).
- HTML5 adoption is entirely dependent on how quickly Internet users adopt web browsers with built-in HTML5 support (because HTML5 is not supported in older browsers). If you’re reading this blog, you’re likely using a brand-spankin’ new web browser. Most of the world is not like us (witness how many corporate IT departments still run IE6).
- There is no support at all for HTML5 in Internet Explorer (Microsoft is still pushing Silverlight).
- Licensing issues around the use of video codecs used with HTML5 compliant browsers persist, with one camp pushing the open-source Ogg Theora codec while the other pushes h.264 (includes license “strings” and uncertain future around royalties past 2016.
- Web video today is [for the most part] delivered through Flash players. There are a lot of powerful Flash applications built by developers and retooling those Flash applications for HTML5 is not going to be easy or desirable for many developers who may find HTML5 less flexible or powerful (not to mention not as widely adopted). Plus, delivering interactivity within video (a tenet of video commerce) must be done through Javascript - lots of player rewrites to be done.
February 16th, 2010 at 11:32 pm
If Microsoft do not support HTML5, it is just another “standard” for HTML. A standard are only a standard IF ALL PLAYERS are supporting it.
Let talk when Microsoft support HTML5.
February 17th, 2010 at 9:24 am
IE market share has been on the
decline, and if the On2 stock
holders approve the sale
of their company to Google
the Internet and HTML5 will
have an unencumbered CODEC
superior to any out there.
That CODEC issue is really
the tipping point. If the On2
sale goes through Flash becomes
the beta-max of Rich Internet Applications and video delivery.
Within months Google will probably
release the standard with DRM
to the Internet community saving it
and other Internet products from
the risks of millions of dollars
in h.264 licensing fees down the
road.
Most browser vendors already
support most of the HTML5 standard already and there would be a rush to tidy up loose ends.
The nature of the javascript
involved in the canvas tag will see
a jquery flavored development tool
almost overnight.
Microsoft will in the face of
the amazing applications I’ve seen be forced to get with the program
or be to browsing what their little paint program is to publishing.
Heres hoping that the On2 stock holders come through today!
February 17th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
As an update Google succeeded!!!!
On2 and it’s leading edge
video CODEC have been sold to Google.
Long Live HTML5!!!
February 18th, 2010 at 9:00 am
I am curious, what will the “player” experience be like in html 5? Will there be a slew of new video players that just make the call for , or established ones just adding support? both?
February 24th, 2010 at 4:24 am
HTML5: Was die Entwicklung für Video Commerce bedeutet…
Bedeutet HTML5 tatsächlich auf lange Sicht die Wiedergeburt des Web, wie manche Medien derzeit prognostizieren? Im Hinblick auf Video-Anwendungen jedenfalls ist die aktuelle Entwicklung sicher nicht uninteressant: “Die kommende HTML-Version 5 enthält …